What Daryl Morey's Five warriors jersey 95 Percent rule tells us about a Ben Simmons trade
There is also the smoke that Morey is waiting for a sign-and-trade to bring James Harden to the Sixers over the summer, using Sim stephen curry lakers jersey mons as his biggest trade chip. But trading Simmons at the deadline doesn’t preclude that from happening. Morey detailed this have-your-cake-and-eat-it-t
Nine years ago in a Grantland column with Zach Lowe, then-Rockets general manager Daryl Morey shared his personal philosophy on when teams should push all their trade chips in for a chance at a ring. That philosophy is now commonly referred to as the Five Percent rule.
“If you’ve got even a five percent chance to win the title — and that group includes a very small number of teams every year — you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title,” Morey told Lowe.
The Five Percent rule lays at the heart of the current Ben Simmons trade debate. Does Morey waste a year of Joel Embiid’s prime and hold onto Simmons if a great deal isn’t out there, or does he prioritize the now and get whatever he can? Morey has publicly stated that he’s holding out, but how much should we believe him? The past may provide the best insight.
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In another conversation with Lowe, this time on a podcast in 2020, Morey doubled down on his belief in the Five Percent rule.
“I don’t understand guys who hang onto their picks when they’re close like this,” Morey said about his 2019-20 Rockets team. “People can go look those teams up. You should [trade aggressively] when you’re close, and for us that’s above five percent chance to win the title, which we are comfortably over right now. Vegas and others have us comfortably over that.”
Morey used that theory of aggression to explain why he moved Chris Paul for Russell West NBA Golf Equipment brook, whom he said increased their title odds even further above that five percent line by raising the ceiling of their peak ability. It was a risky move, but he justified taking big swings when in a championship window.
“To the extent the league limits it, I think it makes sense to go to the max when you have a chance. … When you’re in [contention], you should go for it.”
So the big question, then, is whether this Sixers team is above that five percent line. Some models, such steph curry origins jersey as FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR, believe so, pegging them at seven percent title odds. Las Veg NBA Shirts and Sweaters as has the rebel sport stephen curry jersey m slightly lower, at 4.35 percent.
In reality, though, the only person whose opinion matters here is Morey’s. He has stated that he does believe they’ve ecl stephen curry wearing oakland jersey ipsed that five percent bar. Here’s what he told Philadelphia sports radio host Mike Missanelli last week, elaborating on why he had dropped his trade demands from a top-30 player to possibly a top-40 player:
"Because Joel is playing amazing and has lifted us into probably five percent-plus title odds just on his play, now we might be able to do [a trade] with a top-40 player who's a great fit," Morey said.
The flip side of this a steph curry orange jersey ll-in argument, and one that Morey has also floated, is that the Sixers will wait until the offseason if a great Simmons trade doesn’t materialize at this year’s deadline. Sure, they would waste a year of Embiid’s prime. But it would be worth it to get a better package in the long run and improve their championship odds even more down the line. Here’s how Morey put it to Missanelli:
“If we do a deal that takes us from the eighth-best odds to seventh, you’re looking at half a percent better. Everyone feels better because Ben Simmons, who people want gone, people will feel better that that name is no longer there, but our odds haven’t changed at all and not only have we burned away this season, we’ve burned away our future as well.”
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Here is why I think that Morey is largely posturing regarding those threats to hold onto Simmons. He addressed this exact scenario in his podcast two years ago with Lowe.
“You get so many swings,” Morey said. “I still think we have lots of good hacks at it, lots of real solid probability hacks at winning a title, but the ones you’re in now are the most likely.”
Particularly given Embiid’s injury history, there is no telling whether this same window remains open in future years. Morey has always been in the philosophy of maximizing the present when his teams are above those five percent odds, and he has made extremely bold moves, such as the Paul-Westbrook swap, with the idea that it’ stephen curry jersey auction s imprudent to wait for a future that may never materialize.
This may be the best window that the Embiid-Sixers ever have, and Morey also admitted to feeling that pressure to win now in that radio interview with Missanelli.
“It NBA Eastern Conference Champs makes all of us who work in the Sixers organization get up every morning and say, look, how can we win a championship? … It feels like an extra responsibility when you have someone playing that great to do the right thing.”
Morey has made some huge trades among the 82 (!) on his resume. He has obviously never been shy about pulling the trigger, so why would that change now?
There is also the smoke that Morey is waiting for a sign-and-trade to bring James Harden to the Sixers over the summer, using Simmons as his biggest trade chip. But trading Simmons at the deadline doesn’t preclude that from happening. Morey detailed this have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too scenario with Missanelli.
"We could do it where we do a trade, it helps the team, it's a better fit, and maybe our future opportunities are still open because we get some draft picks as part of it."
That seems like the most likely scenario if a trade for a top-30 player never materializes.
Morey has used the anchoring effect for his benefit previously, making outlandish requests at the start of negotiations before settling on what he really wants. He’s doing it now, saying all the right things publicly to maximize his leverage for the endgame at the trade deadline.
There are two ways that this plays out. The first is that Morey stays consistent with the logic that he has publicly stated for almost a decade and moves Simmons even if there isn't a deal that blows him away. The second is that he contradicts himself and really does hold Simmons out until better offers materialize in the offseason.
Given that Morey has doubled down on the Five Percent rule since as recently as last season, when he told Stephen A. Smith that the Sixers were championship-or-bust and added a smaller piece in George Hill at the trade deadline in exchange for draft assets, I would guess that he makes something happen in February.